A series of new polls indicate that the ‘surge’ Vice President Kamala Harris received after President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid last month is ending.
According to a recent poll by the Napolitan Institute, released on Friday, Trump is once again leading, similar to the lead he held over Biden before the Democrats redirected their support to Harris.
“In the race for the White House, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 46% to 45%. When leaners are included, the Napolitan News survey of 3,000 Likely Voters shows Trump ahead 49% to 47%. A week ago, the candidates were tied at 49% among Likely Voters,” the polling organization noted in a report on its findings.
“These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over. However, the core dynamics of the race remain unchanged. Love him or hate him, voters know what they think of Donald Trump. At this point in time, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown. That means events like the upcoming Democratic convention and presidential debates could have a bigger impact than usual.”
The organization stated that the presidential race remains too close to call at this stage. However, analysts have noted that in the past two elections, Trump has performed significantly better than his polling numbers suggested.
“Trump voters are slightly more likely to vote than Harris supporters. So, the former president does a bit better with a lower turnout. What’s especially amazing about this close race is that it’s quite plausible to envision either party winning a trifecta: control of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House. The most important race to determine Senate control is in Montana. The latest Napolitan News survey there shows Democrat Jon Tester with a narrow lead but the state’s political gravity is likely to boost Republican Tim Sheehy.
A report by Just the News cited the new polling data to explain that voters are “catapulting Trump to lead and ending Harris surge.”
The report noted Harris was leading Trump 44% to 43% in the same survey just a week ago, and held a five-point lead at the beginning of the month.
“These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over,” pollster Scott Rasmussen of the Napolitan Institute told Just the News.
In a recent national head-to-head survey by Rasmussen Reports, Trump is leading Harris by three percentage points.
“Trump came out ahead 49% to 46%. That amounts to a slight gain for Harris, who was lagging behind Trump 45% to 49% in Rasmussen’s poll last week. When third-party hopefuls were added to the mix, Trump came out on top again with 47% to Harris’ 45%, followed by independent contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 4%, and all others at 1% or less, per Rasmussen,” the New York Post reported.
“Rasmussen’s findings are an outlier among recent national polling. The conservative-leaning firm has often been at odds with other top pollsters. In 2016, it was among the closest firms to the final result. Harris is averaging a two-point lead over Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of a national five-way race. In a two-way race, her lead slips to 1.5 percentage points,” the Post added.
The race for battleground state polling has also become much more competitive, with several firms obtaining varying results in the major races.
Harris is still behind Trump, though.
Trump is predicted to receive 287 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 251 in the battleground state estimate by RealClearPolitics, taking all of the big swing states except Wisconsin.
Lately, polling has been good for Trump.
Trump appears to have retaken his lead in polling after an initial surge in support for Vice President Kamala Harris following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection campaign in July.
Harris has enjoyed a solid month of favorable reporting in most mainstream media outlets — all of which lean to the left on their editorial pages — while Trump’s coverage has been proportionally negative.
According to Axios, previous polling by the Cook Political Report published last week showed Harris leading Trump in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Similarly, a New York Times/Siena College poll released last week found Harris with a narrow lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
However, a more recent survey by Navigator Research, published Tuesday, indicates that the race is essentially tied in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Individually, Trump leads Harris by one percentage point in Arizona (46% to 45%) and by two points in Pennsylvania (46% to 44%), while the other three states are in a dead heat.
The Navigator survey is consistent with the RealClearPolitics Polling average of battleground states, which also includes Nevada and Georgia.
